Will Donald Trump get reelected in 2020?
Staff writer|If you want to know if Trump will win in 2020, a good place to start, would be to ask why he won in 2016. Or stated another way – why Ds lost.
If those conditions remain present in 2020, then chances are he’ll win again.
Disclosure: I formerly served as Nevada’s Attorney General. I’m now formally registered as Non-Partisan. I have a healthy disdain for both political parties. They’re both corrupt and incompetent.
I voted for Trump, because I despised HRC. In my opinion, she represented everything that was wrong with American politics (the inauthenticity, the corruption, the self-enrichment, the intense partisanship, the pay to play mentality, the hypocrisy and duplicity, and the dishonesty and distortion).
In my opinion HRC is a criminal and she ought to be prosecuted, for political corruption, for mishandling of classified information, and for destruction of evidence. No one should be above the law, not Trump or HRC. No one!
I left the Republican Party out of protest over Trump. In my opinion, Trump lacks the moral authority to serve as POTUS. Much like HRC did.
I voted for him, because he was the better of two evils. While his dishonesty and duplicity were obvious, they were also in the private sector. Hers were in the public sector, which to me, made her sins more significant and change less likely. This didn’t absolve Trump of his sins. It just made hers worse and more relevant – when considering who should hold public office. There was also the hypocrisy. With Trump you got what you saw – a money hungry narcissist. A braggart and a blowhard. Hilary was very different. You didn’t get what you saw. And that made her far more dangerous. What you saw was a woman who supposedly cared about others. What you got was a lying, manipulative, Machiavellian, fraud who was highly intelligent and capable of unknown harm. Someone masquerading as a patron saint of the people, while trading on inside information, moving furniture out of the White House, creating the country’s most lucrative and corrupt pay to play schemes and then destroying the evidence. With her there was zero hope of reform. With him, slim but some.
It is highly unlikely that the Ds will allow HRC, or anyone like her to run again. And it is highly unlikely that the D candidate will be anywhere near as disliked, distrusted, or as polarizing as HRC.
However, the Democratic Party has moved further to the left since HRC lost. And that will not help Ds in 2020.
The new wing of the Democratic Party, (the Obama wing) which now controls the Party, is the same group that HRC allowed to quarterback her 2016 defeat. And if they continue to call the shots, and employ the same divisive tactics, Ds will likely lose again.
I’m originally from Wisconsin. I was just there last week. Wisconsin is one of the key states that Ds lost in 2016. A state that had voted reliably Democratic for over 50 years.
Ds lost key Midwestern states in 2016 because of two things. The first was HRC. The second, was the direction of the Democratic Party, a direction that became apparent, during the 2016 election, and caused Midwestern Democrats to re-examine their priorities and their options.
In 2016, Midwestern voters saw the new face of the Democratic Party. The race baiting (designed to turn out black voters), and the riots across the country, that flowed as a consequence, didn’t sit well with Midwestern voters.
People saw Democratic donors, like Soros, contributing over 30 million, to groups that paid to bus professional organizers and paid agitators from N.Y.C. and Chicago to Ferguson, and to places like Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Chicago, where riots erupted. These riots were in their communities. And their communities are tinderboxs for more social unrest. They want law and order. They don’t want agitation and rioting.
They saw Obama meeting dozens of times with anti-Trump organizers and protestors and with BLM organizers. Then they saw protestors at BLM rallies in Minneapolis chanting “pigs in a blanket, fry um like bacon”, and police being assassinated at a BLM rally in Dallas.
They saw a liberal media that was shamelessly in bed with the Democratic Party, fanning the flames of discontent, and they lost all trust in the media as a consequence. They saw the media’s transparent attempts to mislead voters, and shape public opinion, with choreographed programming, blatant misinformation and distortion, and they rejected the media.
They saw attacks from the left, on Freedom of Speech, the flag, the national anthem, police, the military, the Second Amendment, patriotism, Capitalism, and many of the values that have historically come to define America as a nation. Values that most Midwestern voters believe in.
They saw an emphasis on globalism and open borders, rather than on America’s working class population and taxpayers – them!
In sum, Midwestern voters saw the Democratic Party morph into something that they didn’t recognize, didn’t agree with, and didn’t like.
The bottom line is this. That dog won’t hunt in 2020, any more than it did in 2016.
So, for Ds to win in 2020, two things need to happen. They need a better candidate (someone like Biden), and they need to pivot away from the disastrous far left strategy, that cost them the 2016 election.
Absent those changes, they will be unable to regain the Midwestern voter that they need for electoral victory in 2020. And they may damage their ability to win beyond that.
Unless of course, the Republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, by continuing to morph into a right wing cluster-f#*k, that becomes even more repulsive than their far left Antifa, anarchists, counterparts.
Unfortunately, the media can no longer play a positive role in even educating Republican voters. It has lost all credibility with them. It no longer has the ability to even alert moderate Republicans to the perverse transformation, occurring within the Republican Party.
It’s a very sad and troubling state of affairs we find ourselves in. And it’s corrupt, opportunistic politicians, from both sides of the aisle, that are causing it, and those with the most extreme views, on both sides of the political spectrum, and a profit driven, segmented media, that are fueling it.
Update to my answer. 5/23/20
One year ago, I posted the above answer to the question: Will Trump get re-elected in 2020? My answer was yes.
My answer has not changed yet. However, based on the way that Trump supporters are now responding to the pandemic, and to reasonable precautions such as masks, my opinion may change, especially if our failure to adopt reasonable precautions results in a second closure before the election.
2020 is Trump’s election to lose. And his supporters aren’t helping him right now.
The most at-risk group for Covid-19 is 65+.
The 65+ vote helped put Trump over the top in 2016. Those voters made up more than a fourth of the electorate and went for Trump over HRC, 53% to 44%, the Pew Research Center found.
A Quinnipiac University poll released May 20, shows Biden leading Trump by 22 points among female voters 65+. Trump leads Biden by 11 points among older men. That’s what gets Biden to a 10-point overall lead among seniors.
A Monmouth University poll out the week before shows another strength Biden has compared with HRC when she faced Trump: He’s winning voters who don’t like either of the major party nominees by more than 40 percentage points. In 2016, Clinton lost that group ( which could be large) to Trump by 17 percentage points.
The race is now closer than Trump supporters may think. And a lot can happen between now and November.
The Trump administration’s early failures at testing, and inconsistent messaging on the risks of Covid-19, have not helped. If he rescues the economy or even shows strong progress toward recovery, that will help tremendously. These next few months leading up to November will be critical. It’s his to lose. And the surest way for him to lose would be to have more Trump supporters out protesting during the pandemic, or doing anything that makes voters feel less safe.
Update on May 31, 2020.
The Killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, by a white police officer in Minneapolis, has resulted in a week of riots across the country. The video of a white police officer, with his knee on a black man’s neck, is an image that few can or will forget. The same is true of the images of a burning police station, brick-throwing criminals and anarchists, and stores being looted all across the country. It’s important to note, that these events, like the riots in 2016, are again being organized by individuals and groups who are allied with or supportive of the Democrats. Ads are again being run, offering to pay protesters to participate. Pallets of bricks are even being delivered to protesters by the truckload. Unlike 2016, the Justice Department is now being controlled by the Trump administration. This means that the FBI can and will investigate these activities and may expose some of the people behind them. The riots in 2016 were largely responsible for electing Trump – who positioned himself as the law and order president. Trump has already announced plans to classify Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization. Events like these favor Trump. And if they continue, they will increase the likelihood of his re-election.
Biden is less active than he should be. Many are raising concerns about his health. I know Biden personally, and I like him. I wish him the best. I would like to see him become much more active. He’ll need to if he expects to win.
The shooting of Jacob Blake, in Kenosha, has brought the BLM rioting to the swing state of Wisconsin. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.jsonline.com/amp/5666947002
Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 – a state that had reliably voted Democrat for more than 50 years. Why did Trump win? Violence, rioting, and concerns over public safety – that’s why.
As I noted in my original post, Wisconsin went with Trump in 2016, because of the rioting in Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and Chicago. The same thing will likely happen in 2020. Wisconsin will again go for Trump due to the unabated and increased social unrest.
The rioting in Kenosha, for the people who live in Kenosha, and surrounding communities, is like a bomb going off. It just doesn’t happen in places like Kenosha. And it will reinforce the views of Wisconsin voters, that Democrats call to defund police, and encourage “good trouble”, confrontation, and a lack of respect for authority, is ill-advised and dangerous.
People have families to protect. That’s their first priority. It should also be the first priority of the government. Trump claims that it’s his first priority. He’s the “law and order” president. His approval among Republicans is 90%. If anything, Republicans want him to be more aggressive in ensuring “law and order”.
Most political scientists agree that the “law and order” policies of Republicans were a major contributing factor in Ronald Reagan‘s two successful presidential runs in 1980 and 1984. A tough stance on crime also helped Rudy Giuliani win two terms as mayor of New York in the 1990s. A pro-law and order position was even widely cited as propelling Gavin Newsom to victory over a more liberal opponent in San Francisco‘s mayoral election of 2003.
Democrats are trying to blame Trump for social unrest. It’s a dishonest claim. Its clearly Democrats, and leftists who are protesting. And its leftists, Marxists, anarchists, and criminals who are responsible for agitating and committing acts of violence and property damage. BLM is a Democrat affiliate, funded by Democrat donors. Just like 2016, leftist groups, affiliated or aligned with the Democrat Party, have been actively involved in organizing protests all over the country. These protests have attracted bad actors. Democrats deny this, but people are generally smart enough to see who’s responsible.
Democrats are desperate to change this perception over the next 60 days. They want voters to blame Trump for the protests. They want everyone to believe that once Democrats are in power, the angst of the radical left will subside because Democrats will address systemic racism and criminal justice reform. What they ignore, is that Democrats organized and inspired the protests, in 2016 and in 2020, that resulted in this outpouring of angst. And while Democrats prefer to ignore their role, in inspiring and creating social unrest, the public won’t ignore their role. Just like they didn’t ignore it in 2016.
As of now, if the election happened today, I believe Trump would win. Democrats have 60 days to turn that around. And they won’t do that with Kamala Harris running point. Biden needs to come out strong. And he needs to do it yesterday. If he came out and called for the protests to cease, and he was successful, he could be rewarded by voters in November. Remaining silent, or continuing to try and blame Trump, is a losing strategy.
Update: 9/14/20 New NYT/Siena College poll
”Perhaps the most surprising finding from the poll was this: In the four swing states — Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin — a larger share of voters said “addressing law and order” was a more important campaign issue to them than said “addressing the coronavirus pandemic” was.
It’s not ”surprising” to me. This is exactly what I have been saying for over a year.
Forget the polls. In 2016 the NYT said HRC had an 85% chance of winning. If you’re looking for a reliable way of judging who will win the Presidential election, check out sites like Bovada, or Vegas Election Odds. And read The Wisdom of Crowds. Right now the race is a dead heat.